#omicron #OmicronAustralia ##OmicronTemporaryFix
COVID is running amok globally, with record numbers in the UK, Europe, the US as well as Australia. Although omicron is largely held responsible, it is not always clear how much of the numbers are due to the Delta variant. This may prove to be a very pertinent piece of information required for the implementation of a satisfactory solution to the covid issue.
In the last post (28 Dec 21) it was noted that Covid seemed to be peaking out in NSW Australia. This was totally untrue, and numbers have reached a record high of 45,098 today. It was also noted that evidence from South Africa showed peaking and rapid declines in omicron cases there, and its apparent mildness as reported from the UK and Rhode Island USA.
Focus on Australia
The current Australian scenario is one of record high cases in all states except Western Australia. The covid numbers are out of control. Hospitals are being overwhelmed. Government policies exacerbated the situation by requiring tests for inter-state travellers, which added to the queues of those with genuine covid symptoms (these policies are now being reviewed). Supermarket shelves are empty and restaurants have to close because staff are in isolation.
A solution has to be found for this rampant covid situation. While the numbers are surging, in the final analysis, this ironically may not be the key issue. The fact is, we still do not understand omicron fully. For instance, is it truly mild as some observers have noted?
Some key observations
Some important points that need to be note are:
- The Delta variant is known to lead to severe cases of covid. Yet there is little data on how much of the current numbers are due to Delta.
- From a strictly health and survival point of view, we must all listen to medical science and scientists. But how much are the governments listening and giving priority to their advice?
- The final decision is always made by governments, and the current surge is due to their decisions.
Possible solutions
We can start from first principles, and observe that we can stop covid in two ways:
- Stop the virus from spreading by placing restrictions on the movement of people
- Vaccinate the people sufficiently so that the virus has no serious effect on them.
Initially, it was believed that vaccination would provide the ultimate solution, but now we are not sure how many doses are required. We must wait and learn.
But one thing we do know is that vaccination has not stopped the current surge, even in countries as highly vaccinated as Australia. The governments have realised this, and several are now re-introducing the restrictions (in a totally ad-hoc way) to slow the rise in numbers.
The practical solution
A practical (and achievable) solution therefore is to
- Ensure the required vaccination is complete, and continue learning about what these requirements are for each variant that comes around
- Impose an adequate level of restrictions people movement to bring the numbers down.
Ideal solutions
We know that in practice, the practical solution above is not as easy as it seems. It would require absolute discipline in implementing total control over people movement for instance. Only a totalitarian government can achieve this. Democratic nations depend on their people to be voted back into office. So they have to be nice to them. So this totalitarian solution, while it will do the trick, is not available to democratic countries.
As pointed out in a previous post, the problem of finding a solution to a pandemic is due to the (free market) nature of the present form of the global economy. The best solution would therefore be to change the economy. Unfortunately, this will take a long time, if indeed it can be achieved at all.
Is there a temporary fix?
We must take stock of the current situation if we are to proceed further. The covid situation has gone out of hand, and governments have start making ad-hoc decisions to contain it. They don’t really know what they are doing, but are hiding it from the public behind their usual official rhetoric.
One must find a coherent solution based on an acceptable rationale and strategy. Any such solution would be better than a series of ad-hoc decisions. One such strategy is to find a temporary fix that allows time for our understanding of the virus to develop further.
Several medical authorities have consistently stated that omicron is mild. But no attempt has been made to give this observation any official status. But no attempt has been made to give this observation any official status. The solution lies in correcting this deficiency.
This can be done by officially categorizing omicron as mild. A suggested method is to declare omicron as a variant of reduced concern. This will enable the current restrictions to be lifted on all omicron positive individuals who have received at least two shots of vaccination, provided their cases are kept under observation for any development of severe symptoms. A high percentage of the population will be able to return to work, allowing the economy to return to a position of near-normalcy
An important caveat
The above fix will only work if we can separate the Delta cases from Omicron, as we still need to treat Delta with the same concern as before. So to conclude, a temporary solution can be found if we
- Identify all Delta cases and treat them as individuals with a variant of concern
- Declare Omicron as a variant of reduced concern and treat it in the same manner as e.g. the common flue.
This strategy will buy time and allow considerable leeway for the economy to operate freely while we learn more about the covid variants and how they work.
It is upon governments to decide and implement methodologies for the detection of the Delta variant cases and to treat them separately from Omicron cases.
Anirudh Singh
Melbourne, 8 January 2022
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